The 4 pillars of The Battler Way are patience, understanding, consistency and smart choices. When you can master those four key pillars mixed with good tips and good value you can win long term.

Key Elements of Smart Choices

Understanding the gambling landscape
Why the game has changed, and why patience is more valuable than ever.
Understanding market forces
Who moves prices, why false favourites exist, and how to spot them.
Understanding rapid changes
Bookie promotions, taxes, influencer bets, what’s distorting markets right now.
Understanding racing concepts
So you’re not just following a tip, but seeing the bigger picture.
Understanding bet types
Identifying the toxic ones designed to drain you, versus the beneficial ones that give you an edge.
Understanding bankroll management
Protecting your capital so you’re still standing when the big winner arrives.
Understanding value
The absolute cornerstone, finding horses that are over their true odds.
Understanding POT vs strike rate
A high strike rate looks good, but profit on turnover is the true measure of success.

PUNTER INTELLIGENCE - Smart Choices.

In racing often the “obvious” or “common sense” isn’t the good path.

Jockey ROI is a dangerous stat but it does tell us which jockeys are outriding their market price expectations.

James McDonald is the king of Sydney and gets to pick his Waller runners.

However, over the last 12 months Tommy Berry who often gets the next best choice is out performing him on ROI by 32%.

So “the best jockey” who gets often “the best chances” mean little to the punters path to profit. The value is often around Berry.

McDonald has a higher strike rate too. Riding winners up to 20% more often.

Again, showing Strike Rate for a punter is often tits on a bull.

To understand why Tommy Berry might have a better ROI than James McDonald despite winning fewer races, we look at Expected Value (EV). This is the mathematical way to determine if a bet is "value" or a “trap.”

To calculate EV, you compare your

estimated probability of a horse

winning against the probability implied

by the bookmaker's odds.

1. The Public Favourite (Negative EV)

Everyone knows James McDonald is riding a great horse. The bookies set the price at $1.50.

A. Implied Probability: The market thinks the horse has a 66.7% chance to win.

B. Real Chance: If the horse actually only has a 60% chance to win, the EV for a $10 bet is:

Even if this horse wins more often than not, you lose $1 for every $10 bet in the long run.

2. The Value Runner (Positive EV)

Tommy Berry is on a horse priced at $10.00.

A. Implied Probability: The market thinks the horse has only a 10% chance to win.

B. Real Chance: If you analyse the form and believe the horse actually has a 15% chance (it's better than the crowd thinks), the EV for a $10 bet is:

You will lose 85% of the time but profit +$5 for every $10 invested.

That is our path to profit, losing often but winning long term.

So when I talk about patience, understanding and consistency its not an excuse it’s a plan. Our VIC best bets strike rate in 2025 was only just above 6% with a high POT.

Tricks Bookmakers Use To Convince You To Take Negative EV

Awful Bet Type (eg Same Race Multis / Many Leg Multis).

The Trick: Margins compound. If a bookie has a 5% edge on a single bet, that edge keeps growing and suddenly they have a 30% + long term edge.

The Illusion: They show you a massive potential payout (e.g. odds of $51.00), making you focus on the reward rather than the probability of winning. The true odds might be $80.00, meaning you are being vastly underpaid for the risk.

Summary: We can overcome the margin in a “double” with a positive EV, but the more legs you add the impossibility of overcoming the compounded margins becomes clear.

2. The Cash Out

The Trick: The Cash Out offer is calculated by the bookmaker's algorithm to be significantly lower than the true current value of your ticket.

Psychology: They prey on Loss Aversion. You would rather take a guaranteed small win now than risk losing it all, even if letting the bet ride is statistically the better financial decision.

Summary: Unless something has significantly changes (eg. Weather, important SCR that changes a races tempo, a track is playing extremely biased) the Cash Out is a suckers choice.

3. Boosted or Enhanced Odds Buttons

The Trick: Often, the "boosted" selection was already poor value (overpriced) to begin with. Boosting a horse with a true chance of $3.00 down to $2.40 is still negative EV.

The Distraction: These boosts direct traffic to specific outcomes the bookie is comfortable laying, distracting you from finding value elsewhere in the market.

Summary: Our results have constantly shown, while not in every race, but long term BTSP or BOB is a far better product at finding value than Fixed Odds. Confirmation bias may trick you to just noticing the times a horse starts shorter than the “when tipped” price, but the data long term is clear.

4. "Money Back" Specials (Bonus Bets)

The Trick: A "Bonus Bet" is not cash. It is worth usually 60-70% of cash value because the stake is not returned on winning bonus bets.

The Trap: To break even on these promos, the horse usually needs to win or place at a very specific frequency. You are buying insurance and substituting price for a possible refund (in non-cash return)

Summary: It feels like a safety net, but its actually a mathematical trap long term.

5. Anchoring with "Market Movers"

The Trick: This exploits Herding Behaviour. If everyone else is backing it, you feel it must be a winner.

The Reality: If a horse has been heavily backed, its odds have likely shortened below its true probability. By betting on a "market mover," you are often buying at the absolute worst price (buying at the top of the market).

Summary: There is a reason bookmakers pay TV channels to tell you who the “money horse is”. And it’s not so you win more.

6. The "Next to Jump" Punter

Betting apps prominently feature a countdown timer for the "Next to Jump" races.

The Trick: This creates artificial urgency. When you rush to get a bet on before the timer hits zero, you don't have time to do proper form analysis or calculate EV. You are betting on action, not value.

The Reality: Any good punter is not a next to jump punter. The next to jump punter is like a pokie machine player. They are not betting with form or value they are betting hoping lady luck is on their side. This is the most profitable, high margin punter and bookies know this.

Summary: We send you the tips a day before the event. You have time to work out your plan. Not let emotion or the countdown clock dictate your next move.

7. The Influencer Friend

The Trick: Exploiting Para social Relationships and Authority Bias. Bookmakers hire ex-athletes, charismatic media personalities, or relatable "lads/girls next door" to represent their brand. Because you like them, respect their past sporting achievements, or find them funny, you let your guard down. You feel like you are part of their "team" or community. When they suggest a bet, it feels like a mate giving you a hot tip at the pub, not a corporation trying to take your money.

The Reality: The Conflict of Interest is Absolute. The influencer's boss is the bookmaker. The bookmaker pays the bills. The influencer's job is not to provide winning tips; their job is to provide volume (get people betting). Bookmakers are data companies. They track every single tip given by their ambassadors. If an ex-footballer's tips were consistently Positive Expected Value (+EV) and costing the bookmaker millions, that ex-footballer would be fired tomorrow. The fact that they are still employed is proof that over the long run, following their advice leads to negative EV.

Summary: They normalise losing. When the influencer loses a big bet, they laugh it off as "bad luck" or "part of the game," encouraging you to do the same rather than questioning the mathematics of the bet.

Finding winners is one part of the “battle” , the other part of the battle is understanding the market we plan in so we don’t fall traps to what the bookies want. These bookies spend 100’s millions on advertising so you A. Engage with them B. Take their bait and make bad bets.

They know what they are doing. They know how to exploit the punter so they win.

You can win

You can have fun

But you need to fight the right “battles”

And thats what the Battlers is about.

With the right EV, with the right bet choices, with the right strategy you are more than a fighting chance long term.

Backing Winners is the Goal –

But Smart Choices Make the Difference

More than just tips.